LBSfix.com

a reflection on the past 4 months of LBS

I was reflecting this week on some major moves by key players in the mobile LBS sector.  Let’s go back a few months.  TeleNav, on the back of distribution deals with Sprint and ATT file for an IPO.  Next, Networks in Motion sells to TCS for $175M.  Coincidently and or simultaneously Google announces their free Map and Nav product on Android. Impeccable timing if you are not a fan of TeleNav.  A few months later Nokia announces free Nav on all of their devices.  

 

A few weeks at MWC in Barcelona we hear from Google that there are 60k new Android devices activating every day (without any growth that will be 21.9 million in 2010), a formidable base of users for free nav.  Next we hear that Nokia’s #s are equally impressive boasting 1 million new users in 1 week.  We also hear news that Garmin along with Asus are releasing an Android powered Nuvi phone.  Wonder if that one will have the free nav feature enabled???  One of the key takeaways is that the OEMs see tremendous value in LBS and have taken strong positions in their utilization of the feature as a differentiator. 

 

A quite announcement comes out of Apple that they are restricting mobile location based ads.  Without specifics from Cupertino, the web was awash in ideas of what this could mean.  As I shared with Dan Butcher at Mobile Marketer, I think this is about preservation of user experience.  I think it is also a very real recognition of the value that location ads to mobile advertising.  Game and app developers must think the same thing as they are all chomping at the bit to add location ads.  As with the nav example above, this move by Apple signifies the value of location with respect to a major economic category, mobile advertising. 

 

Pretty funny post from MG Siegler on TechCrunch gave a comical view into how users of FourSquares check in feature can leave themselves exposed to a ravenous group of twitter scouring burglars.   This was based on a new site called pleaserobme.com.  BTW, disregard my check in from Logan Airport this am.  I am standing guard, barricaded in my house with loaded shotgun and second amendment in hand.  The take away here is that location is sensitive information and should be in total control of the user.  If you do not want someone to know where you are, don’t tell them.  I think it is pretty simple. 

 

So, what does all of this mean?  How are these stories connected?  Like retail, it’s location location location.   But it is also money, money money.  LBS and LBA (Location Based Advertising) are clearly on their way to becoming significant sources of revenue for a lot of companies.

Been a while...

Ok, so it’s been a while since I have posted here.  In fact it’s been about 762 days.  It’s not due to a lack of interest, or time, or the fact that I have been lazy, rather this has been a research project to provide for reflection on how much has changed in the LBS space in the past 2 years.  Well, maybe it’s a bit of laziness (not that I haven’t been busy in the past year). 

In reflection on the past two years, more has happened in the past 12 months than have happened in the past 3+ years.  Prior to this post, the major milestones in the mobile LBS space have been the launch of voice guided navigation from folks like Telenav, Telmap, Garmin, etc.  There were a handful of POI apps, activity based apps (BiM being one of my favorites), and the advent of social networking apps led by Buddy Beacon on Helio, now owned by Virgin.   

So, what has happened that has helped catapult the LBS market into the mainstream for both consumer and media?  Well, a few product launches have helped drive mass market awareness to LBS, namely the iPhone 3G and 2.0 software for 2G devices driving the development of hundreds of GPS apps, the recent launch of the Google G1 on T-Mobile, the announcement of the NuviFone from Garmin, advancements and acquisitions by Nokia, and the launch of GPS devices from AT&T. 

There has been some consolidation and acquisition, as well as the birth of a number of companies into the mobile LBS space.  Many have said that LBS is one of the hottest aspect of mobile today.  I can’t agree more.  The ringtone market is washed up, as is  wallpaper, generic apps, etc.  Music and video are still struggling with business models and adoption.  LBS stands out as a key category of growth both from consumer adoption (NIM reports great consumer adoption on Verizon with VZ navigator, reporting 3 million paid subs on their platform) and business models (MSFT pushing a $100 million search deal with location, again on Verizon). 

Are we at a tipping point for Mobile LBS?  Well, I think after 5 years, we are there.  The analysts are predicting a huge market in a few years.  Dominique Bonte at ABI predicts a global market of $13 billion in LBS by 2013. 

So, what’s next?  My belief is acquisitions will make most of the headlines in 2009.  Larger firms involved in the space, as well as those on the peripheral are going to get involved.   In a down economy, larger firms with strong cash positions will take advantage and gobble up market share.  It won’t be tough for some of the big guys to pull together a few successful start-ups to be well positioned as the economy starts to turn.  The companies that have large developer bases, impressive consumer adoption, carrier deals, and unique services will be the first to get acquired.  Apps that drive social networking, dynamic POI, and integrated ad platforms will be at the top of every acquirers list. 

 

From a services perspective, advertising will be a huge area of focus for developers in the LBS / GPS category.  Within some of the econ pundits predicting a change in the macro-economic forecast in 2H '09, advertisers will be ready to turn the budgets back on.  Brands will begin to see the adoption of mobile LBS applications, along with the success rates of certain campaigns, and trigger more spending. 

 

What ever happens, I am sure that it will be an exciting year.  I hope you check back here again soon...i.e. not in 762 days.

20 Million Buddy/Friend/Family Finder users by 2011

According to a press release from ABI Research, the mobile friend and family finder  market in North America will reach 20 million by 2011.  ABI is estimating 500,000 users on currently deployed solutions such as Sprint Family Locator , Verizon Wireless Chaperone, Family Locator from Disney, and other recently launched services such as Helio's Buddy Beacon.  According to the research, the customer base for these services will more than double every year for the next 5 years. 

The press release is a sales pitch for the full blown research report, so it is unclear what will drive the growth, but the release does mention the expectation that GSM operators (read: Cingular) will begin to deploy location based services in 2007.