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October 12, 2006

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Dan Melinger

I agree with your analysis of the Nokia / ORB deal. It _is_ an example of "Dumb Pipe Theory" and I think Nokia knows exactly what they're doing. I've got no answers as to whether that's a smart or dumb choice by them, but it's pretty clear that those Finns are starting to test the waters, pushing, but not yet enough to get their current customers (the carriers) too ticked off.

It's just one of a long line of moves - dual-mode WiFi-enabled devices that carriers are balking at, "flagship stores" around the world going direct-to-consumer, maybe even the N95 with its inclusion of a GPS chip on a GSM handset, to some extent. We'll see if it's a good bet. In the very long run, I have no doubt that bits will be bits, but it's very possible that Nokia is placing their bet too early.

Lisa Peterson

In the US market, the carriers still very much control the end to end experience. But, the European and other international markets are different - the OEMs have more flexibility to directly market to the consumer, so this model is much more prevalent. Nokia's recent purchase of Gate 5 makes sense, since their new phones have GPS built in and the intent is to drive adoption through value added services. Mobile navigation is going to be a huge market - I think we will start seeing this integrated into many service offerings. My question would be why did Nokia decide to go with an onboard GPS Nav solution vs. a server-based solution, given that they are in the wireless space? I would think that they would want to enhance this with real-time content, such as traffic, weather, etc. at some point, so I'm not clear on their selection of an "onboard" provider. The carriers are all working with server-based providers, since this drives additional data usage.

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