Ok, so it’s been a while since I have posted here. In fact it’s been about 762 days. It’s not due to a lack of interest, or time, or the fact that I have been lazy, rather this has been a research project to provide for reflection on how much has changed in the LBS space in the past 2 years. Well, maybe it’s a bit of laziness (not that I haven’t been busy in the past year).
In reflection on the past two years, more has happened in the past 12 months than have happened in the past 3+ years. Prior to this post, the major milestones in the mobile LBS space have been the launch of voice guided navigation from folks like Telenav, Telmap, Garmin, etc. There were a handful of POI apps, activity based apps (BiM being one of my favorites), and the advent of social networking apps led by Buddy Beacon on Helio, now owned by Virgin.
So, what has happened that has helped catapult the LBS market into the mainstream for both consumer and media? Well, a few product launches have helped drive mass market awareness to LBS, namely the iPhone 3G and 2.0 software for 2G devices driving the development of hundreds of GPS apps, the recent launch of the Google G1 on T-Mobile, the announcement of the NuviFone from Garmin, advancements and acquisitions by Nokia, and the launch of GPS devices from AT&T.
There has been some consolidation and acquisition, as well as the birth of a number of companies into the mobile LBS space. Many have said that LBS is one of the hottest aspect of mobile today. I can’t agree more. The ringtone market is washed up, as is wallpaper, generic apps, etc. Music and video are still struggling with business models and adoption. LBS stands out as a key category of growth both from consumer adoption (NIM reports great consumer adoption on Verizon with VZ navigator, reporting 3 million paid subs on their platform) and business models (MSFT pushing a $100 million search deal with location, again on Verizon).
Are we at a tipping point for Mobile LBS? Well, I think after 5 years, we are there. The analysts are predicting a huge market in a few years. Dominique Bonte at ABI predicts a global market of $13 billion in LBS by 2013.
So, what’s next? My belief is acquisitions will make most of the headlines in 2009. Larger firms involved in the space, as well as those on the peripheral are going to get involved. In a down economy, larger firms with strong cash positions will take advantage and gobble up market share. It won’t be tough for some of the big guys to pull together a few successful start-ups to be well positioned as the economy starts to turn. The companies that have large developer bases, impressive consumer adoption, carrier deals, and unique services will be the first to get acquired. Apps that drive social networking, dynamic POI, and integrated ad platforms will be at the top of every acquirers list.
From a services perspective, advertising will be a huge area of focus for developers in the LBS / GPS category. Within some of the econ pundits predicting a change in the macro-economic forecast in 2H '09, advertisers will be ready to turn the budgets back on. Brands will begin to see the adoption of mobile LBS applications, along with the success rates of certain campaigns, and trigger more spending.
What ever happens, I am sure that it will be an exciting year. I hope you check back here again soon...i.e. not in 762 days.
